600% Increase in COVID-19 Testing
The media keeps stating that corona virus has “spiked” in Arizona. What they’ve not been saying is that the frequency with which Arizona doctors and hospitals are testing went from 2500 tests per day to almost 15,000 tests per day just after the first week in May. In fact, 17,663 tests were reported on yesterday alone.
Our testing frequency increase 600% in the last 6 weeks. Of course we are going to see increased numbers of positive tests. That is to be expected. Additionally, what you are not being told is that the number of positive tests has remained consistent around 8-10% of all those tested. We are not seeing a “spike.” We are getting a much clearer picture of the prevalence of this virus. And, the large majority of those being tested are under 45 years old, those with the least likelihood of severe symptoms.
The Virus Can Be Lethal, But So Is Influenza and Childhood Pneumonia
Don’t get me wrong, this virus has the potential to be lethal in 1-2% of those that are infected, those who are immuno-compromised, but the majority of those getting positive tests (98-99%) will quickly recover without significant problems. That is identical to influenza. And you can see from the graphic below that the majority of those who have died in Arizona are those over 65 years old with significant other disease risk factors.
CDC estimates that there have been 62,000 deaths from influenza from October 2019 to April 2020.
As of this week, the CDC’s provisional death counts for COVID-19 from January to June 2020, excluding influenza, are 45,524. That’s still less than influenza numbers above.
809,000 children died in 2017 from bacterial pneumonia in 2017. That’s 2200 children that die every day from preventable pneumonia, yet we haven’t mandated masks for this epidemic.
As you can see below, death from COVID-19 has continued to decline, despite what the media is saying. If it were truely spiking, we would have seen a rise in COVID-19 deaths around June 6th-15th (Arizona’s Quarantine Orders ended on May 31st), giving a 7-14 day incubation period after people began working and interacting. Yet that isn’t what the Arizona Department of Health is reporting. The number of deaths continues to fall.
12,285 people died in Arizona from heart disease in 2017 and 11,719 died from cancer. We know that high carbohydrate intake combined with high fat foods is the number one risk factor for both of these diseases, yet there has been no city or state mandate on these risk factors. And, we know that hyperinsulinemia (the underlying cause of diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, and most cancers) is the primary risk factor in severity of illness in COVID-19 patients.
I have yet to hear Governor Ducey or Mayor Hall issue an executive order on time spent in a bakery or proximity to Krispy Kreme.
Is Hospital Bed Space Still an Issue?
Possibly, but during our low point in hospitalization at the beginning of April in Arizona, hospitals were still at 60-70% of capacity. As of the writing of this article, Arizona is at 85% of capacity. This was to be expected.
Will we reach capacity over the next 2-4 weeks? Epidemiological projections claimed that even with quarantine of the state we would max out our hospital capacity in April. We didn’t even come close.
A Rise in COVID-19 Cases is Expected
If you look at history, the only time where viral infection quarantine was incorporated into a city versus one that was not (St. Louis & Philadelphia), you will see that a rise in viral infection and death naturally occurred after removing the quarantine orders. This is visible in the red indicator at 80-110 days in St. Louis. Our rise in COVID-19 cases and fatalities is to be expected.
The whole point of this was to unload burden on hospital facilities, not stop the spread of infection all together, as that will never happen. The goal of decreased hospital burden has been accomplished.
Why All the Hype?
Your guess is as good as mine. I have wracked my brain as to why our leaders persist in forcing the average healthy American to feel anxious, fearful and insecure over a virus that is no more problematic than the flu.
Why would mandates for mask wearing occur 6 months after the outbreak of the virus occur when death rates are falling and data shows us that many people have already had this infection without knowing it? If you look at the cities in Arizona where mask and social distancing mandates have been enacted in the last week, you may recognize that these are the more progressive left leaning cities. This push to change the way we live our lives seems to come from this group and is amplified by the left-leaning media. Motive may revolve around the poll box in November.
Though you and I have felt this deeply in our homes and wallets, liberals running for office at all levels across the state and nation likely feel they have politically benefited from the outbreak of the coronavirus. The subsequent regulations on social distancing, mask wearing and business closures gave Democrat elected officials more power over individual lives and business operations than they have ever had before. Combine that with the ability to blame our current president for the economic consequences of the virus and you can see why some would salivate for another outbreak to rescue their hopes for unseating this president.
Is This A Method to Move Us to Main Streamed Contact Tracing?
A second reason for the hype could be a desire to move people to allow wide spread “contact tracing.” This is much like facial recognition software that we see used so often in the latest spy thrillers. However, contact tracing uses the GPS in your phone to track your location, travel and your contacts.
As of last month, contact tracing software was added to Android and IOS phones. Apple released iOS 13.5 and iPadOS 13.5 for iPhones, iPods, and iPads on May 20th. They went live alongside minor software updates for Apple TV and HomePod devices. The iOS update mainly adds new health-related features—most notably the much-discussed Exposure Notification API that was co-developed with Google to help local, regional, and national governments enact contact-tracing strategies to battle the COVID-19 pandemic. These are not automatically turned on, but you can find them under the privacy settings of your phone. Added without your consent, contact tracing and facial recognition cameras used individually or in coordination are arguable violations of human rights and rights to privacy.
Several Supreme Court cases have recognized a right to travel. For example, in Kent v. Dulles (1958), the court wrote, “The right to travel is a part of the ‘liberty’ of which the citizen cannot be deprived without due process of law under the Fifth Amendment. . . . Freedom of movement across frontiers in either direction, and inside frontiers as well, was a part of our heritage. . . . Freedom of movement is basic in our scheme of values.”
In addition to the right to travel, in Toomer v. Witsell (1948), the Supreme Court asserted that the act of shrimping (and, more generally, pursuing one’s livelihood) was protected by the Fourteenth Amendment’s Privileges and Immunities clause. (“Shrimping” means to fish for shrimp.)
And in the well-known case of Meyer v. Nebraska, the Supreme Court determined that constitutionally protected liberty “denotes not merely freedom from bodily restraint but also the right of the individual to contract, to engage in any of the common occupations of life, to acquire useful knowledge, to marry, establish a home and bring up children, to worship God according to the dictates of his own conscience, and generally to enjoy those privileges long recognized at common law as essential to the orderly pursuit of happiness by free men.”
There is a strong argument that the Constitution protects the freedom to move, travel, and do business. However, constitutional interests are not absolute, and argument arises that this could be limited by pressing public health interests, especially during a state of emergency. Hence the need for cities and states to declare “state of emergency” before enacting these orders.
In order for liberty-infringing public health laws to be constitutional, they must be the least restrictive means of protecting health. With regard to the novel coronavirus, this may not be the case.
A Change of American Values
There are those on the left who have a profound dislike for what you and I see as the traditional American culture and political mores of the United States. Remember Barack Obama’s words about those who “cling to Bibles and guns,” Hillary Clinton’s labeling of Trump supporters as “deplorable,” and the recent emphasis across the nation by many to get “transformational change?” Understand that it is not just mere reform or improvement the Democrats desire, they want a wholesale difference in the way Americans interact with each other, think and operate day-to-day.
Fear of your neighbor, because of unseen illness or skin color, makes you and I more likely to accept governmental regulation and vote for help at the ballot box. History has demonstrated this fact for hundreds of years. When the government appears smarter than your doctor, you’re more likely to vote for single payer health care. Think about it.